Key financial indicators

Macroeconomic factors

In December 2024, the annual inflation rate in Kazakhstan was 8.6%, down from 9.8% in 2023.

Food prices in December increased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating some acceleration in growth compared to previous months. This trend is driven by a number of factors, including seasonal price fluctuations, changes in global food prices, as well as the impact of domestic factors such as transportation and logistics costs. Non-food products showed an increase of 8.3% over the year, which is also within forecasted values. However, the most pronounced growth was observed in the paid services sector, where the annual price increase was 13.3%.

The foreign exchange market also underwent significant changes. In December 2024, the exchange rate of the KZT against the USD reached KZT 523.54 per dollar, reflecting a 15% depreciation of the national currency since the beginning of the year, which is due to a combination of factors, including increased demand for foreign currency from importers, increased dollarization of the economy, as well as external economic factors such as commodity price dynamics and the policies of the world’s largest central banks.

The reduction of the current account deficit to USD 4.4 billion and the growth of international reserves to USD 105.7 billion indicate an improvement in the country's external economic position. However, ongoing budget expenditures and continued deficit financing from the National Fund represent a long-term challenge to macroeconomic stability. In the future, a possible reduction in budget dependence on transfers and diversification of the country’s economic structure may play a key role in ensuring sustainable economic growth²⁴.

Exchange rate dynamics

Financial and economic indicators

Key financial and economic indicators, KZT million²⁵

Income from sales of products and services by producers, KZT million

The major share in the Company's operating income is held by Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP, Almaty Electric Stations JSC, Alatau Zharyk Company JSC, Branch of Alatau Zharyk Company JSC – Energоsbyt. At the same time, when consolidating revenues, intragroup turnovers are excluded from the total amount mainly for energy producing and distribution companies.

Cost of sales

Cost of products and services, KZT million

Cost of sales for 2024 totalled KZT 371,645 million, which is 13% higher than in 2023. The increase in costs is due to an increase in variable production costs (coal, gas, services of KEGOC JSC, etc.) in connection with the growth of prices for goods and services, costs on the balancing electricity market (hereinafter – BEM), labour costs of production personnel as part of social support to employees of subsidiaries and affiliates, taxes and other mandatory payments to the budget, indexation of prices for raw materials and production materials.

Depreciation for 2024 was KZT 58,020 million, a decrease of KZT 4,536 million or 8% compared to the same period last year. The main decrease for Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP is due to revision of service life of fixed assets.

Profit and selling expenses

Sales expenses for 2024 decreased by KZT (86) million (by 1%) compared to 2023 and totalled KZT 8,845 million. This deviation is caused by a decrease in costs for KEGOC JSC services in organising the balancing of electricity production-consumption due to the tariff reduction.

Forecast for the future period

In the forecast for 2025, distribution costs are planned at KZT 10,319 million, which is KZT 1,474 million or 17% higher than in 2024. The increase in distribution costs is due to an increase in the volume of electricity output from the tyres of Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP (commissioning of Block No.1), as well as an increase in the prices for the services of KEGOC JSC.

Administrative expenses

At year-end 2024, administrative expenses totalled KZT 20,013 million, up KZT 6,488 million or 48% on the same period in 2023, mainly due to the inclusion of AES Ust Kamenogorsk HPP LLP, AES Shulbinsk HPP LLP and Energy Solutions Centre LLP (Ekibastuz CHPP) within the consolidation perimeter.

Forecast for the future period

In the forecast for 2025, administrative expenses are higher than the 2024 level by KZT 5,308 million. The increase is mainly due to the indexation of wages as part of social support for employees of subsidiaries. Also, the increase is due to the inclusion in the consolidation perimeter of the Company of OAR Energy Solutions Center LLP (Ekibastuz CHPP) (in the actual for 2024, these expenses were consolidated for 5 months).

Finance costs

Finance costs for 2024 amounted to KZT 31,322 million, which is KZT 6,078 million higher than the actual value for 2023. The increase is due to the recognition of expenses on loans of Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP (Block No.1) in current expenses.

Forecast for the future period

In the forecast for 2025, finance costs amount to KZT 48,891 million. The increase is mainly due to the recognition of expenses on loans of Ekibastuz GRES‑1 LLP (reconstruction and modernisation of fuel supply) and Almaty Electric Stations JSC (gasification of the Almaty energy complex) in current expenses.

Share of profit of joint ventures and associates

Loss from equity companies for 2024 totalled KZT 5,856 million, a decrease of KZT 8,977 million compared to the same period, mainly due to a decrease in operating profit as a result of lower operating income (lower export volumes) and higher operating costs, as well as higher financing costs (exchange rate difference) and other expenses from non-core activities (including impairment loss on other assets).

Liquidity and financial stability indicators

Samruk-Energy JSC has achieved the target indicators for financial stability ratios set by the shareholder.

Fulfilment of covenants from external creditors

Based on the results of 2024, Samruk-Energy JSC complied with financial and non-financial covenants of creditors, which are fixed on a semi-annual basis.

Debt burden

According to the results of 2024, the consolidated nominal debt of the Company totalled KZT 403.3 billion, the increase in nominal debt for the reporting period compared to the results of 2023 (KZT 310.3 billion) amounted to KZT 93 billion.

The increase in nominal debt in 2024 is due to borrowings for the investment projects of Almaty Electric Stations JSC for the CHPP-2 project and projects of Ekibastuz GRES‑1 LLP.

In order to mitigate interest rate risk, in September 2024 the partial early repayment of the KZT 34.7 billion loan from Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC was carried out with a reduction in the rate from 16.5%–18.75% to 16.25% at Ekibastuz GRES-1 LLP.

Credit rating (Fitch Ratings)

On October 14, 2024, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed the long-term credit ratings of Samruk- Energy JSC in foreign and national currency at BB+, outlook “Stable”.

Comparative analysis (benchmarking)

Benchmarking is one of the important elements of the Company's management. The purpose of benchmarking is to compare operational and financial indicators with foreign analogue companies in order to determine the Company's weaknesses and strengths. The following indicators were used for benchmarking:

• EBITDA margin (EBITDA margin);
• Debt/EBITDA;
• Debt-to-equity ratio (Debt/Equity);
• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).

Data from the following peer companies were used for benchmarking:

• PJSC “Unipro” (Russia);
• CEZ Group (Czech Republic);
• RWE (Germany).

Benchmarking results

Currently, compared to foreign peer companies, the Company lags behind in some indicators.

The EBITDA margin is a key indicator of the Сompany’s operational efficiency, reflecting its ability to generate profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Compared to other companies such as Unipro, RWE, Samruk-Energy JSC demonstrates a high level of operational efficiency with an EBITDA margin of 39%, but is slightly behind CEZ Group.

In terms of Debt/EBITDA and Debt/Equity, Samruk- Energy JSC is at an average level compared to CEZ Group and RWE, but significantly lags behind Unipro in terms of financial stability.

In terms of ROIC (return on invested capital), Samruk‑Energy JSC is below CEZ Group and Unipro, but 6% higher than RWE.

It should be noted that, unlike public peer companies, Samruk-Energy JSC is owned by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and therefore, the Company acts as a conduit for state policy in the electric power sector. In this regard, and also due to the high degree of wear and tear in the energy sector, since 2009, socially significant investment projects have been implemented (aimed at the reliability and uninterrupted operation of the energy system of the Republic of Kazakhstan), which has led to a significant increase in invested capital and, accordingly, reduced the return‑on-investment indicator.

An additional factor affecting the return-on-investment indicators is the low level of electricity tariffs in the Republic of Kazakhstan compared to the countries of peer companies.

Difference in electricity tariffs in the countries of peer companies²⁷